ENVIRONMENT – Teetering Between Conflicts and Climate Crisis

Afghanistan is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis; the convergence of conflicts and climate risks further exacerbates the population’s food and economic insecurity. On one hand, the country has been enduring over 40 years of armed conflict, primarily fueled by regional and global powers vying to extend their influence over this geostrategically significant territory. On the other hand, the situation is worsened by the effects of climate change, highlighting another profound injustice: despite having contributed minimally to global climate change—an Afghan produces on average 0.2 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, compared to nearly 16 tons for the average American—Afghanistan is experiencing a temperature increase above the global average.

The country is ranked among the most vulnerable in the world to climate change due to a combination of low adaptive capacity—i.e., the ability to prevent or minimize environmental damage—and high exposure to climate impacts. In 2022 alone, 228,000 people were affected by sudden and violent climatic events. Women, children, and rural communities living in the most remote areas are most exposed to these risks.

The consequences include the acceleration of the social crisis with further violence, fanaticism, land and water resource wars, and mass migrations: for over 40 years, millions of Afghan citizens have been fleeing.

Nearly 4 million internally displaced people live in refugee camps, deprived of the most basic services. Recent analyses suggest that another 5 million people could be forced to migrate from Afghanistan due to climate disasters alone by 2050.

Floods and landslides are a frequent natural hazard in Afghanistan. Intense rainfall events have increased by 10 to 25% over the past 30 years. At the same time, Afghanistan is grappling with one of the worst droughts it has ever seen. According to the UN, this could turn from a sporadic event into an annual occurrence by 2030. The main irrigation systems depend on the amount of snow that falls during the previous winter on the Hindu Kush mountains or the central highlands. In the long term, the loss of glaciers could radically compromise the region’s water and hydroelectric supply. Their shrinkage, a phenomenon common globally, and rising temperatures have much graver consequences for Afghanistan than elsewhere, with over 75% of the country’s total surface experiencing desertification. This means less than a third of the population has access to clean drinking water; thousands of children die every year due to contamination and poor sanitary conditions.

Water distribution is also hindered by poor management and infrastructure deficiencies, considering that only a small percentage of investments in Afghanistan were directed to the sector during the NATO occupation. At the same time, bombings and Taliban attacks on facilities to terrorize the population have destroyed the irrigation network built by farmers using ancient methods.

The social consequences of this situation are even more severe when considering that 80% of the population depends on agriculture for subsistence, and wheat cultivation is highly susceptible to water scarcity. These crops are being replaced by opium poppy fields, which are much more drought-resistant and a crucial funding source for the Taliban.

Beyond environmental causes, thousands of farmers in 2021 alone were unable to plant their annual crops due to fighting; half of those planted were lost, and the price of wheat rose by 25%.

The interaction between climate change, humanitarian catastrophe, and the absence of governance over these phenomena drives people to join the Taliban militias and towards radicalization, in a devastating spiral for the country.

Discrimination against women and girls exacerbates their vulnerability: impoverished farmers sell livestock and marry off young daughters in exchange for money to feed the rest of the family or repay debts. Drought renders land infertile, and floods sweep away homes and possessions, reducing agricultural productivity and pushing men to migrate to urban areas in search of work. Women have to care for the family but face increased risks of domestic violence, sexual harassment, trafficking, and early and forced marriages, along with numerous restrictions on their freedom, from movement to education and employment opportunities.